The playoffs begin and the Wildcard round is usually one of the most interesting, this season should be no exception as there are four very strong wild card teams and a couple of very suspect division champions. Indeed it is well within the possibilities that all of the wildcard teams will win into the divisional rounds. Each of these games has potential to be very closely contested, it should be a great weekend to watch football. (For those keeping track at home the regular season results were 169 – 86 – 1 straight up and 137 – 112 – 7 against the spread.)

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

AFC

Baltimore at Miami – The Dolphins have one of the great turnaround stories of the game as they have won ten games more than last season. This has been the result of good fortune to some extent; they were the real winners of the Brett Favre sweepstakes. They have played well also as reflected by the fact that they have the fewest turnovers in the NFL. A lot has been made out of their use of the Wildcat formations and trick plays but really, they play fundamentally sound football on both sides of the ball.

The Ravens defense seems to have found the fountain of youth and is playing as good as they ever had which is a very high standard. They may not be the best statistical defense but they are certainly as difficult to play against as anyone is and capable of turning around a game on almost any play. The greater surprise is the offense, which has big play potential for the first time in recent memory.

These teams met in week seven with the Ravens winning. This looks like a close game but the nod here goes to Baltimore again. The Miami offense relies on speed and the Baltimore defense has the players to neutralize their speed. In the other direction, the Baltimore running game can wear down the Miami defense and open up big play opportunities in the passing game, Ravens win 24 – 20.

Indianapolis at San Diego – The Chargers essentially returned from the dead after starting the season 4 – 8 and making the playoffs. They recovered by refocusing the defense and getting the offense healthy down the stretch. They did not play as badly as their early record might indicate.

Indianapolis also started the season with an uncharacteristic losing stretch. They have the longest winning streak going into the playoffs, they perhaps have not played as well as their record might indicate but they have proven the ability to win from behind with strong efforts late in games.

This game is a rematch of week twelve when the Colts won on a field goal as time expired. Both defenses are suspect and both offenses have advantages against the defensive weaknesses of the other side. The season play suggests that the Colts have found ways to win late and the Chargers have found ways to lose late, hard to pick against that trend, Colts win 24 – 21.

NFC

Philadelphia at Minnesota – The Vikings have struggled their way to a division title. They have a good running offense and a quality rush defense with everyone expected to be available on the defensive line. Their pass offense has been hit or miss and this is not a good team to come from behind in a game.

The Eagles are a frightening team, both good and bad. They have the capability to play at the highest levels on both offense and defense but they can be horribly inconsistent as well. They lack a power running game, which has cost them in the red zone; the offense depends largely on how McNabb plays.

Based solely on talent the pick for this one has to be Philadelphia. They have more ways to win and more weapons but they also have the ability to implode. Whatever the result there is a likelihood that this game may not be all that close, Eagles win 24 – 14.

Atlanta at Arizona – Arizona has been a team on the brink for some time trying to win their division and make their way into the playoffs. They managed to win the West this season though it is not clear that anyone else was really trying to win it. Their offense can be prolific but has been inconsistent at times. The problem for the Cardinals is on defense where they give up too many big plays, they have by far the worst scoring defense of any team in the playoffs.

Atlanta has been one of the big surprises of the season as they finished seven games better than last season and made wholesale changes to their roster, most of which seemed to have worked very well. The offensive line has played well protecting rookie, Matt Ryan who has played better than any quarterback has since Marino. Michael Turner has excelled as an every down back and is a break away threat. The defense is not great but it is effective.

Atlanta is the choice for the win based on their defensive advantage, which is not decisive but may be enough. If Arizona can jump out to an early lead and get Atlanta out of their running game they have good chances. If Atlanta gets rolling with the running game, they can pretty much dictate the tempo, Falcons win 28 – 24.

Speaking of the Baltimore Ravens, rookie RB Ray Rice, who is averaging 4.2 yards a carry, is expected to suit up for his team’s playoff game in Miami this Sunday according to ESPN.

Rice had missed three games with a calf injury but says he thinks he’ll be ready.

Baltimore is a 3-point road fave.

For the second time in his career, QB Chad Pennington has been named the Associated Press’ 2008 NFL Comeback Player of the Year–this time with the Miami Dolphins.

Pennington was partially responsible for the Dolphins’ 10-win turnaround which enabled Miami to capture the AFC East division.

Miami will host the Baltimore Ravens in the first-round of the NFL playoffs listed as a 3-point underdog.

Vegas oddsmakers evidently don’t think much of the NFL’s division winners who
did not get first-round playoff byes. The opening lines for all four games have
the home teams as underdogs. Here’s how
things shape up at footballlocks.com (home teams in CAPS):

Oddly, the team with the worst record, San Diego, is the smallest underdog.
The Colts are slight favorites, which is fair enough, since the Colts and
Chargers have already played once in San Diego this year, with
the Colts winning on a last-second field goal.

Dolphins vs. Ravens is also a rematch. In Week Seven, Baltimore went into
Miami and won 27-13, caging up the wildcat and holding Ronnie Brown to 27 yards
on 13 carries.

My initial instinct was to say that there’s no way in hell that all four road
teams are going to win this weekend, but the more I think about it, I don’t
know. You look at the home teams, and it’s not like any of them get a big
weather advantage. You’ve got games in Phoenix, San Diego, Miami and a dome.

Additionally, home field advantage hasn’t meant a ton in the playoffs in
recent NFL history. In the last five years, home teams have a winning percentage
of just .580 in the playoffs (a record of 29-21). It’s an advantage, but not one
that’s so huge that it couldn’t be offset by a year with somewhat odd
circumstances.

Gracias, Fifth
Down.

1-15 last year, 11-5 this year. The Miami Dolphins did a complete 180 in the span of a year going from worst to first, in the AFC East.

Miami defeated the New York Jets 24-17 covering as 2.5-point underdogs and will host the Baltimore Ravens in a first-round playoff game.

The Dolphins are a 3-point home underdog and the Total is set at 37.