The final bowl game for today features No. 21 Missouri against No. 23 Northwestern with Mizzou listed at -11.5.

When favored by more than 8-points, Missouri was racked up a 17-3 record SU and 11-9 mark ATS in its last 20-games.

One of the key leaks in weak players games is that they bluff for very obvious reasons.

The most obvious of these is desperation, usually in situations where their hand has missed and the only real option that they have to win the hand is to bluff - regardless of what signals of strength have been given off by their opponents.

This kind bluff nearly always occurs on the river, when they have missed their hand, and are basically thinking along the lines of ‘Well I’m at the river, my hand can’t win at showdown, I was hoping to hit my gutshot/flushdraw/straightdraw/over cards/whatever, and now my only option left is to bluff’. This is not their only option of course, as they could fold or check fold, saving themselves a great deal of money over the long run.

The main reason for these situations occurring with bad players is they usually have not planned the hand in advance. They have fired on flop and turn, built a large pot out of position, and are now left in a horrible spot on the river. If you can plan your actions for multiple streets you can avoid ever getting in these situations.

Once you have taken these sorts of plays out of yoru game, you can start taking advantage of other players making them. These bluffs are nearly always the same, in that the line taken by the player makes no sense considering their normal style of play. Much of this is up to the read on the player, but typically they happen on boards that just don’t fit the story that you are being told.

A typical example of this is when an opponent raises pre flop, you defend on the button with a suited connector, flop middle pair and call a flop bet. Both players check a low turn, and then the pre flop raiser fires out a big bet on another low river. This nearly always indicates a desperate attempt to win with their two high cards (God forbid a bad player should ever lose a pot where they started with ace king), as they would have usually bet the turn with any hand that was made.

Bad players actually bluff a great deal, they just tend to do it out of frustration and desperation more than for reasons to do with a certain player or a certain board. Always remember that bluffs have to form a coherent story that you are telling about your hand, and vice versa, and if you ever see that story start to breakdown, it is probably worth your while making a few thin calls.

Related Readings

Bluffing - How to pull the trigger - Marcus Bateman
Beating weak poker games - Marcus Bateman
Bluffing in PLO - Marcus Bateman

The Los Angeles Lakers managed to beat the Memphis Grizzlies straight up last night by a final of 105-96 but failed to cover as 11.5-point faves.

The Lakers haven’t covered a spread in 10 games and face the New Orleans Hornets tonight listed at +3; the purple and gold have gone 6-4 SU and ATS against New Orleans lifetime.

This is one of the most important things that the very best players seem to be able to do over and over again.

‘Pulling the trigger’ simply refers to being prepared to fire numerous streets with nothing against any opponent that you feel is weak. This is often an extremely hard thing to do, especially late in tournaments, or when up against players whom you know to be extremely dangerous and skilled.

The hallmark of all the greatest ‘big bet’ (simply referring to either pot limit or no limit games - due to the size of the bets it is possible to make) poker players is the ability and courage to not only pick up on the situations when firing multiple bullets at a pot will win it, but also to have the courage to follow with their instincts and really put their opponents to the test. Always remember that big bet poker is as much a test of courage as of anything else - you simply have to be prepared to go out on a limb sometimes and really put pressure on your opponents.

Some of the best examples of this can be seen when watching skilled players late in tournaments. With stack sizes so short relative to the blinds, a player will often have to risk everything in the pursuit of chips. Here picking up on any weakness or loathing to call big bets from the players around you must be identified and capitalised on - even if you are risking your tournament life to do so.

Doyle Brunson made an excellent analysis of this point in his great book Super System. He constantly talked about the importance of not only being able to pull the trigger and fire bets into numerous streets against weaker players, but also of the importance of creating a sense of fear and loathing to call big bets in your opponents - consistently letting them know that any pot that they enter with you may well be their last.

The very best big bet poker players are akin to the special forces in the military. They are extremely aggressive and daring, but only in situations where they feel that the risk has a good chance of winning. This is a very instinctual ability, and one which can only really be perfected through experience and play. Get out to the tables, pick up on weakness and be prepared to die by the sword that you have to live by in all big bet games.

Related Readings

The Semi-Bluff - WSOPE
PLO Bluffing - Marcus Bateman
Changing gears - Marcus Bateman

The Los Angeles Lakers have the best record in the NBA’s Western Conference (21-5) but they’ve been most unprofitable the last nine games failing to pay out at 0-9 ATS.

The Lakers have an opportunity to grab an ATS victory as they play the Memphis Grizzlies listed at -11.5 but haven’t done well in Tennessee lately.

Kobe and company are 3-6 SU and ATS in the last nine games in Memphis.